Click here http://valleyblueprint.org/san-joaquin-valley-higher-density-residential-housing-market-study.html for the project home page, which includes downloadable versions of the report and model.
In the discussion of smart growth and higher densities the question often arises, “But will it sell?” This is a reasonable concern for developers, lenders and local governments. Developers are in a business that relies on creating a desirable and sellable product. Lenders only finance projects they believe will be successful. Local governments want these products to contribute to quality, livable neighborhoods. The idea of increasing residential densities is often rejected by elected officials, agency staffs, developers, lenders, and the general public. This rejection is often based upon myths associated with high density development or the lack of information. The objective of this request for proposals is to develop information and modeling which will provide those involved in the land use planning and project approval process with better access to factual information to inform their decisions. The principle objective of the study is to determine the market demand for higher density residential housing types such as small lot attached and detached single family residential, town homes, medium and high rise residential or mixed use developments, TODs, infill, multi- family residential, etc. The Council of Fresno County Governments (Fresno COG), on behalf of the eight valley Regional Planning Agencies (RPAs), contracted with the Concord Group, as the selected consultant, to determine the need and market demand for higher density residential housing types.
This report presents demographic forecasts for the San Joaquin Valley and the eight county-wide Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) in the Valley. The MPOs may use these forecasts to assist in determining the impact of various development densities on the fiscal health of cities and counties in the San Joaquin Valley and identifying market demand for higher density residential housing projects associated with the preferred growth scenario of the San Joaquin Valley Regional Blueprint. Equally important, these forecasts can be incorporated into the common traffic model being developed for the MPOs. The forecasts may also be used to formulate items such as Sustainable Community Strategies required under SB 375 and the Regional Housing Needs Allocation, also required under state law.
*Please note: On April 5, 2012, the San Joaquin Valley Regional Planning Agencies' Directors' Committee accepted the final version of the San Joaquin Valley Demographic Forecast 2010-2050 (dated March 27, 2012), and directed staff to use the projections as input for the San Joaquin Valley Higher Density Residential Housing Market Study and San Joaquin Valley Fiscal Analysis Tool project; both projects are currently under-way.
In addition, the Directors' also directed staff to arrange future meetings with both the California Department of Finance (DOF) and the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) to discuss the final projections from this study and their possible effects upon planning activities in the Valley.
|San Joaquin Valley Demographic Forecasts - Final 27 Mar 2012.pdf||1.71 MB|
The suburban development that has characterized the post-World War II era has meant that Americans’ quality of life has relied on an ever-expanding road infrastructure that could keep pace with rapid population and automobile growth. With growing concern over the environmental effects of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), policymakers have considered how to lower vehicle miles traveled as a means of reducing GHGs. According to the California Air Resources Board, the transportation sector contributes about 37 percent of all GHGs emitted within the state, with passenger vehicles comprising 73 percent of this amount. With dramatic population growth forecast over the next several decades, public policies implemented today can have important economic, social, and environmental consequences for the future.
|Shawn-Kantor-The Financial and Institutional Challenges to Smart Growth Implementation- A Focus on California's Central Valley.pdf||511.46 KB|
California's San Joaquin Valley is a place of contradictions. It contains some of the most productive and wealth generating agricultural lands on the planet. At the same time, many of the people who produce this bounty live in poverty and often face health risks due to toxic by-products of the region’s economy.
The San Joaquin Valley is also a land of opportunity where California can learn important lessons on how to solve these most pressing problems to fulfill its promise as the Golden State.
(September 2010) This report provides an overview of the first four years of the San Joaquin Valley Blueprint (2005-2009), including the key players and participants, and the results of the Valleywide planning effort. The report is divided into six sections. Section 1 introduces the Valley Blueprint and provides some background on blueprint planning in California. Section 2 describes the agencies, organizations, and individuals that made the Valley Blueprint possible. Section 3 describes five stages of the Valley Blueprint planning process. Sections 4 and 5 describe the results of the Valleywide Blueprint effort and the eight county Blueprints that served as a foundation for the Valleywide Blueprint. Finally, Section 6 summarizes the next steps in implementing the San Joaquin Valley Blueprint.
The Blueprint Guidance Framework is made up of a set of 11 specific strategies intended to guide implementation of the Valley Blueprint. This Guidance Framework is one of three products that make up the San Joaquin Valley Blueprint Roadmap. The other two are the Blueprint Planning Process Summary Report and an Internet-based Planners Toolkit of programs and techniques local governments can use to implement the Blueprint.
This whitepaper was prepared at the direction of the San Joaquin Valley Regional Planning Agency Executive Committee. The views and opinions of the authors of this whitepaper do not necessarily reflect those of the San Joaquin Valley Regional Policy Council or the San Joaquin Valley Regional Planning Agency Executive Committee.